Covid-19: What lessons?

To date, COVID-19 has infected 1.2 million people and killed 67,000. There are many questions and angles to explore: nature of the virus, causes of spread, degree of severity, status and evolution of the pandemic, possible treatments and vaccines, etc. Today I will focus on some lessons that can be learned from the evolving crisis and specifically some timely and effective decisions that have been taken so far.

More than three months after the start of COVID-19, some countries have clearly achieved impressive results.

Taiwan, which has one of the world’s most advanced and accessible health care systems, began by banning access to foreigners and then applied a combination of vigilance, proactive measures and information sharing with the public. The production of masks was quickly ramped up to 10 million per day. A unified command centre was set up, headed by the Minister of Health and Welfare. Taiwan used big data analysis technology. All of the above was accomplished with a great deal of transparency. Result: 363 cases and 5 deaths for a population of 22 million.

South Korea opted for a mass testing policy (19,000 free tests per day), 600 test centres, including 50 drive-through kiosks (a world’s first), cell phone alerts. Result: relatively small numbers, with 10,000 cases and 183 deaths for a population of 51 million.a

China, the first country affected by the epidemic, quickly established containment in three cities affecting a total of 60 million inhabitants. Actions included closure of schools, construction of two hospitals in 10 days and a dozen temporary hospitals, temperature monitoring, tracing of suspected cases, door-to-door controls, quarantine of infected people. Through a well-designed and strict approach, confinement was enforced under the best possible conditions by ensuring people had access to everything they needed, including the delivery of meals to the inhabitants of these cities. Result: stabilization of the infection with 82,000 cases and 3,300 deaths for a population of 1.5 billion.

Singapore, which has a high-quality health system, has used a policy of enforced quarantine, with contact tracing, heavy penalties for offenders (up to $10,000, 6 months prison), generous financial assistance ($100/day for self-employed workers). Result: 1300 cases and 6 deaths for a population of 5.6 million.

Measures taken in Hong Kong included restrictions on border traffic, closure of schools and playgrounds, free distribution of hand sanitizer, temperature monitoring, public information on the age of infected people and the location of quarantined and self-isolated people. Result: 890 cases and 4 deaths for a population of 7.5 million.

Final, a measure common to all of these countries: the wearing of masks is strongly recommended.

These examples show there is not ONE right strategy. Everything depends on the seriousness of decision-makers and the means they deploy to enforce well-conceived and timely measures. These examples also illustrate the irreplaceable role of governments. In my opinion, they are the best placed and the best equipped to deal with a crisis like this.

These are industrialized countries. I will discuss other experiences later.

Benyounès