The aggression led by Israel and the United States against Iran, initially expected to last a few days, has now entered its third week. How is this war unfolding? And who will win it? Military stakes are high, and censorship is strong, particularly in Israel. Yet, it is possible to attempt an answer based on available evidence.
The material cost is enormous, nearly one billion dollars per day. Rising oil and gas prices weigh heavily on Europe. Growing opposition may emerge in the U.S., especially among business sectors sensitive to costs and risks of instability. Public opinion remains wary of a new Middle East war.
Destruction in Iran is significant, but Israel also suffers heavy damage. Iran shows unexpected resilience and energy.
Recent history offers lessons: the U.S. failed in long and costly wars like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, not only for military or political reasons but also because they were unjust. Today, Iran is a country victim of external aggression, which strengthens its cohesion and capacity to resist.
This war is part of the Palestinian tragedy, ongoing for 77 years. Israel appears as the main initiator of the attack against Iran, partly to divert attention from the Palestinian issue. Iran supports the Palestinians’ right to self-determination over their historic land.
Moreover, Iran, heir of ancient Persia, that is, a millennia-old civilization, maintains a strong identity despite invasions and trials. The Persian Empire, more than two thousand years old, remains a symbol of historical continuity and national resilience.
It is highly likely that this war will end the Israeli-American aggression, recognize the Iranian people’s right to decide their future freely, and acknowledge the Palestinians’ right to regain their land and dignity.
Benyounès Saidi
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