Whenever powerful countries, like the U.S., talk about regime change, they should think twice about the consequences. Iraq shows how foreign intervention can backfire. Iraq was once a secular, unified country. After the U.S. invasions and regime change — especially in 2003 — its institutions collapsed, and sectarian politics became dominant. Instead of restoring a secular state, the new system became organized around religious identity and divided factions, making politics unstable and fragmented. Today, 35 years after the first U.S. attack in 1991, Iraq still cannot form a stable government because competing blocs cannot agree, and the country hosts several foreign military presences — the U.S., Turkey, NATO, and armed groups backed by regional powers. The U.S. embassy has come under repeated attacks, and the U.S. government is urging its citizens to leave Iraq for their safety. As the old Arabic saying goes: “The winds do not always blow in the direction of the ships” — a stark ...
The aggression led by Israel and the United States against Iran, initially expected to last a few days, has now entered its third week. How is this war unfolding? And who will win it? Military stakes are high, and censorship is strong, particularly in Israel. Yet, it is possible to attempt an answer based on available evidence. The material cost is enormous, nearly one billion dollars per day. Rising oil and gas prices weigh heavily on Europe. Growing opposition may emerge in the U.S., especially among business sectors sensitive to costs and risks of instability. Public opinion remains wary of a new Middle East war. Destruction in Iran is significant, but Israel also suffers heavy damage. Iran shows unexpected resilience and energy. Recent history offers lessons: the U.S. failed in long and costly wars like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, not only for military or political reasons but also because they were unjust. Today, Iran is a country victim of external aggression, which stre...